South East & Mid Atlantic Forecast
Tornado Watch Until 8 PM
New local forecasts are coming for all US zip codes. The new forecasts
will include: 7-day forecast, hourly forecast, detailed description for next 7
days and more. Stay tuned for updates.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1140 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2008
SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT... BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING STORM
SYSTEM ON MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT
AS OF 1140 AM SUNDAY...
A VERY COMPLICATED PATTERN PERSISTS. THE EARLIER SEVERE
SQUALL HAS ALL BUT COMPLETELY MOVED OFFSHORE... HANGING BACK
OVER SOUTHEAST GA. THE COASTAL WARM FRONT HAS MADE SOME
INLAND PROGRESS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH LOCATIONS LIKE
WILMINGTON/MOREHEAD CITY/HATTERAS INTO THE UPPER 60S WITH
ESE WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINA HEADS
OFFSHORE... THE THINNING SPOTS IN THE CLOUD COVER NOW
APPEARING OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD. HOWEVER
LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER WITHIN THE RESIDUAL WEDGE AIR
MASS... WELL DEFINED OVER WESTERN NC/SC AND NE GA WHERE
SURFACE WINDS ARE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO
THE HYDROSTATIC PRESSURE RISE PRODUCED IN THE WAKE OF THE
MORNING RAINFALL THERE. A QUICKLY STRENGTHENING LINE OF
DISCRETE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS DEVELOPING FROM OH
THROUGH FAR EASTERN KY/TN WITHIN THE DRY SLOT NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL JET NEAR 100 KTS PUNCHING
IN FROM THE WEST.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST
AND PINCHES OFF THE WARM SECTOR OVER FAR EAST TN... THE
OCCLUDED/TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE WEDGE
FRONT... MOST LIKELY NEAR OR JUST EAST OF ATHENS GA ALONG THE
ZONE OF SURFACE MASS CONVERGENCE AND TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL OF 10-15 DEGREES. THEN THE LOW SHOULD TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN SC INTO NC AS THE LOW-MID
LEVEL JET CORE PUNCHES IN FROM THE WEST. THE TRACK OF THIS
LOW IS CRITICAL AS OUR BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE ALONG IT (WHERE LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND HENCE THE
RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE RICH
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY SOURCE) AND SOUTHEAST OF IT (WHERE THE
INLAND-MOVING WARM FRONT AND BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD
LEAD TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION). AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST... ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WEDGE REGION... HOWEVER THEY ARE LIKELY TO POSE A MUCH
GREATER SEVERE THREAT AS THEY APPROACH THE WEDGE BOUNDARY
AND WARM SECTOR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC. HAVE
RETAINED THE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS... MOST NOTABLY ALONG
AND SE OF A LINE FROM ALBEMARLE THROUGH RALEIGH THROUGH
KERR LAKE. EXPECT HIGHS FROM 59 IN THE TRIAD TO 74 IN SOUTHERN
SAMPSON COUNTY ALTHOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON IF/WHEN THE
WEDGE REGIME BREAKS AND IF/WHEN THE COASTAL FRONT CAN PUSH
INLAND. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED TO
REFLECT THE LATEST EXPECTATIONS. -GIH
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA WILL
RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S.
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE. WE CAN EXPECT SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE 70S.
Tornado Watch Until 8 PM
New local forecasts are coming for all US zip codes. The new forecasts
will include: 7-day forecast, hourly forecast, detailed description for next 7
days and more. Stay tuned for updates.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1140 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2008
SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT... BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE EXITING STORM
SYSTEM ON MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT
AS OF 1140 AM SUNDAY...
A VERY COMPLICATED PATTERN PERSISTS. THE EARLIER SEVERE
SQUALL HAS ALL BUT COMPLETELY MOVED OFFSHORE... HANGING BACK
OVER SOUTHEAST GA. THE COASTAL WARM FRONT HAS MADE SOME
INLAND PROGRESS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH LOCATIONS LIKE
WILMINGTON/MOREHEAD CITY/HATTERAS INTO THE UPPER 60S WITH
ESE WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE
SYNOPTIC PRECIP SHIELD OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINA HEADS
OFFSHORE... THE THINNING SPOTS IN THE CLOUD COVER NOW
APPEARING OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD. HOWEVER
LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER WITHIN THE RESIDUAL WEDGE AIR
MASS... WELL DEFINED OVER WESTERN NC/SC AND NE GA WHERE
SURFACE WINDS ARE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO
THE HYDROSTATIC PRESSURE RISE PRODUCED IN THE WAKE OF THE
MORNING RAINFALL THERE. A QUICKLY STRENGTHENING LINE OF
DISCRETE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS DEVELOPING FROM OH
THROUGH FAR EASTERN KY/TN WITHIN THE DRY SLOT NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL JET NEAR 100 KTS PUNCHING
IN FROM THE WEST.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST
AND PINCHES OFF THE WARM SECTOR OVER FAR EAST TN... THE
OCCLUDED/TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE WEDGE
FRONT... MOST LIKELY NEAR OR JUST EAST OF ATHENS GA ALONG THE
ZONE OF SURFACE MASS CONVERGENCE AND TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENTIAL OF 10-15 DEGREES. THEN THE LOW SHOULD TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WESTERN SC INTO NC AS THE LOW-MID
LEVEL JET CORE PUNCHES IN FROM THE WEST. THE TRACK OF THIS
LOW IS CRITICAL AS OUR BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE ALONG IT (WHERE LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND HENCE THE
RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE RICH
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY SOURCE) AND SOUTHEAST OF IT (WHERE THE
INLAND-MOVING WARM FRONT AND BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD
LEAD TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION). AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST... ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WEDGE REGION... HOWEVER THEY ARE LIKELY TO POSE A MUCH
GREATER SEVERE THREAT AS THEY APPROACH THE WEDGE BOUNDARY
AND WARM SECTOR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC. HAVE
RETAINED THE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS... MOST NOTABLY ALONG
AND SE OF A LINE FROM ALBEMARLE THROUGH RALEIGH THROUGH
KERR LAKE. EXPECT HIGHS FROM 59 IN THE TRIAD TO 74 IN SOUTHERN
SAMPSON COUNTY ALTHOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON IF/WHEN THE
WEDGE REGIME BREAKS AND IF/WHEN THE COASTAL FRONT CAN PUSH
INLAND. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED TO
REFLECT THE LATEST EXPECTATIONS. -GIH
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...
STACKED LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA WILL
RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S.
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFFSHORE. WE CAN EXPECT SUNNY SKIES TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE 70S.
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On This Date In Carolina Weather History...
Tarboro reaches a low of 32 degrees on May 11, 1966. A severe
thunderstorm knocked trees down throughout the city of Greensboro on May
11, 1996. Two houses sustained major structural damage and a business
building that was under construction was destroyed.
Tarboro reaches a low of 32 degrees on May 11, 1966. A severe
thunderstorm knocked trees down throughout the city of Greensboro on May
11, 1996. Two houses sustained major structural damage and a business
building that was under construction was destroyed.
